Trump’s Bold Prediction: Is the Russia-Ukraine War Finally Winding Down?

Trump Hopes for Ukraine War Endgame as He Meets Macron

Washington: US President Donald Trump expressed optimism on Monday that Russia’s war in Ukraine was nearing an endgame, as he met with French President Emmanuel Macron on the third anniversary of the invasion.

Optimism for Peace

Trump shared broad-ranging comments on the conflict, indicating he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin might accept European peacekeepers in Ukraine to maintain stability. He suggested the war could conclude within weeks, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy potentially visiting the US soon to finalize a critical minerals deal.

“It looks like we’re getting very close,” Trump told reporters at the start of his bilateral meeting with Macron. He noted that Zelenskyy could visit Washington this week or next to sign a deal giving the US access to Ukraine’s critical minerals to repay part of the $180 billion in American aid sent to Kyiv since the war began.

Group of Seven Discussions

Earlier on Monday, Trump and Macron participated in a virtual meeting with fellow Group of Seven (G7) leaders to discuss the war. These talks came amid uncertainty about transatlantic relations, as Trump’s foreign policy approach appeared to sideline European leadership while pursuing a swift resolution to the conflict.

Security Concerns and Future Guarantees

While Ukraine seeks security guarantees as part of any agreement, Trump did not clarify whether American security assurances would be included in the emerging deal. Instead, he emphasized Europe’s role, stating, “Europe is going to make sure nothing happens.”

A Shift in American Foreign Policy

Trump’s return to power has prompted concerns in Europe over a dramatic shift in American foreign policy. His demands extend beyond Ukraine, including territories like Greenland, Canada, Gaza, and the Panama Canal, as well as rare earth minerals crucial for US industries.

Macron’s Stance on Ukrainian Sovereignty

At a joint press conference, Macron described the talks as productive and stressed the need for European nations to bolster their defense. He cautioned against capitulating to Russia, stating, “This peace must not mean a surrender of Ukraine. It must not mean a ceasefire without guarantees. This peace must allow for Ukrainian sovereignty.”

Putin’s Response and Security Issues

While the Kremlin did not immediately comment, Putin has consistently opposed Western forces near Russia’s borders, previously highlighting European or US troops in Ukraine as a major security issue for Moscow.

Broader Implications

Analysts warn that if Trump’s approach prevails, decades of US-led stability and principles underpinning international institutions could be at risk. Ian Kelly, a former US ambassador and current professor at Northwestern University, expressed concerns about abandoning the long-standing policy of opposing aggressors without sufficient reflection.

Ongoing Diplomatic Efforts

Trump is scheduled to meet British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Thursday, continuing high-stakes talks with European leaders. His repeated criticism of Zelenskyy for not negotiating an end to the war has unsettled Europe, particularly as Trump seeks a minerals deal beneficial to American industries.

UN and International Reactions

The US recently failed to gain UN General Assembly support for a resolution to end the war without mentioning Russian aggression. Instead, a European-backed Ukrainian resolution demanding Russia’s immediate withdrawal was approved.

Zelenskyy’s Concerns and Disputes

Zelenskyy initially resisted the minerals deal, citing a lack of security guarantees. He emphasized the need for a comprehensive agreement that integrates economic benefits with genuine security measures for Ukraine.

The friction between Trump and Zelenskyy intensified when Trump labeled Zelenskyy a dictator and falsely accused Kyiv of initiating the war. When asked if he considered Putin a dictator, Trump was noncommittal: “I don’t use those words lightly.”

The China Factor

Macron underscored the broader geopolitical stakes, suggesting that Trump’s handling of Putin could influence US credibility with China. “You can’t be weak in the face of President Putin. How can you then be credible in the face of China if you’re weak in the face of Putin?” Macron asked.

Looking Ahead

As Trump navigates delicate negotiations, European leaders remain wary. His proposal for Russia to rejoin the Group of Seven, from which it was suspended following the 2014 annexation of Crimea, underscores his unorthodox approach to diplomacy. The outcome of these talks may redefine not only the future of Ukraine but also the global balance of power.

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